Europe and Latin America
Although populism is not a new phenomenon, in recent years we have witnessed an increase in the vote share of populist parties around the world. In this data bite, we show the dynamics of populist parties in the past 15 years in Europe and Latin America.
Between 2011 and 2015, populism had already taken a strong hold in Turkey after the consolidation of Recep Tayyip Erdog ̆an and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in power. A similar situation occurred in Latin America with Nicaragua, where Daniel Ortega and the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) won their fourth election amidst multiple blockages of domestic and international observers. At this point in time, countries as big as Poland, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, and Belgium were already showing high levels of vote share for populist parties. In Latin America, with the exception of Peru, high levels of vote share were located in Caribbean countries or small countries like Guatemala and Panama.
By the second half of the 2010s, populist parties rose in number and vote share in Europe. Populist vote share in Armenia reached 70 percent. In Poland, vote share for Law and Justice (PiS) grew by 10 percentage points. Italy’s Five Star Movement experienced a boost of 7 percentage points. In major countries like France and Spain, populist parties grew by more than 10 percentage points, while in Germany, vote share for Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained 8 percentage points. In Latin America, Nicaragua remained the country with the highest vote share for a populist party. However, driven by charismatic leaders like Lo ́pez Obrador and Bolsonaro, populist vote share made significant strides in Mexico and Brazil, respectively. In Mexico, populist vote share increased by 29 percentage points, whereas in Brazil, it increased by 12 percentage points.
Recently, the elections for the European Parliament in June 2024 showed the consol- idation of populist parties in the region. Right-wing parties were especially successful in this election. Right-wing populism seemed to consolidate in Hungary, and surprisingly in France. Populist vote share also increased in Italy, with 29 percent coming from the right-wing Brothers of Italy (FdI) and 9 percent from the left-wing Five Star Movement (MSS). Greece also showed high levels of populist vote share, but it was divided between 15 percent for the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and 9 percent for the Com- munist Party. In Latin America, two prominent leaders drove populist vote share in 2023 and 2024. In Argentina, where for years left-wing populism was the norm, Javier Milei and his newly created Libertarian Party obtained 30 percent of the votes in the first round and ended up winning the presidency in the second round with 55 percent. In El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, a right-wing populist and self-declared “the world’s coolest dic- tator,” was re-elected with 84 percent of the votes. Mexico, on the other hand, continued its trend of institutionalizing populism, as MORENA, the left-wing party, obtained 45 percent of the vote share to win the presidency again.
The recent elections in Europe and Latin America show a significant rise vote share for populist movements, with right-wing parties consolidating power in countries like Hungary, France, and Italy, and a strong left-wing populist presence in Greece. In Latin America, charismatic leaders such as Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador have driven right-wing populist success, while Mexico’s MORENA continues to institutionalize left-wing populism. These trends highlight the growing influence of populism across diverse political contexts.
