The 2024 U.S. presidential election saw a decline in minority support for the Democratic Party and a transference to the Republican Party. Whether this shift is temporary—driven primarily by economic factors such as inflation—or permanent, reflecting an ideological hegemony established by Donald Trump that these groups find appealing, remains an open question. However, it is worth analyzing the extent to which these minorities have moved from supporting Joe Biden to supporting Donald Trump. Given the U.S. electoral system, particularly the electoral college, looking at trends at the state level is key to understand the phenomenon. Even though this time Trump won the popular vote he did it by the smallest margin in U.S. history, thus, here we analyze the trends of eight swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

In this data byte, we use data from two surveys: the SurveyMonkey-Tableau 2020 U.S. Election Polling and the AtlasIntel Key States U.S. Presidential Election 2024 poll. Both surveys proved to be accurate for their respective elections. On average, in these states, the data from these polls show that between the 2020 and 2024 elections, support for Democrats decreased by 10 points among Asians, 17 points among Blacks, and less than 1 point among Hispanics. Meanwhile, support for Republicans increased by 10 points among Asians, 19 points among Blacks, and 5 points among Hispanics. 

The trends for Arizona (Figure 1) show that Donald Trump experienced a 19-point boost among Hispanics, who account for more than 30% of the population. However, Kamala Harris gained 5 points among Black voters. In contrast, in neighboring Nevada (Figure 2), support for Democrats among Black voters decreased by 14 points, while support for Republicans increased by 20 points. In Nevada, where Hispanics make up almost 30% of the population, support for Trump increased by 10 points, while among Black voters, it rose by approximately 20 points. 

In Georgia (Figure 3) and North Carolina (Figure 4), where African Americans make up 30% and 20% of the population, respectively, support for Democrats decreased by 14 points in Georgia, while support for Republicans increased by 17 and 11 points, respectively. In these two Southern states, the most dramatic shift was among Asians in North Carolina, where this group increased its support for Democrats by 32 points while reducing its support for Republicans by 26 points. However, Asians account for less than 4% of the state’s population. 

The swing states in the so-called ‘Rust Belt’ showed the largest shifts. In Michigan (Figure 5), Democrats lost support among Asians and Blacks by 33 and 32 points, respectively, while Trump gained 32 points among Black voters. Similarly, in Minnesota (Figure 6), Black voters shifted their support, with Democrats losing 29 points and Republicans gaining 14 points. 

In Pennsylvania (Figure 7), the overall trend continued, with all groups shifting support from Democrats to Republicans, though in a more moderate fashion. Finally, the most dramatic change occurred in Wisconsin, where Trump gained 46 percentage points among Black voters and 37 among Asians. At the same time, Republicans lost 28 points of support among Asians and 38 points among Black voters. 

These shifts in voter preferences across key swing states highlight a significant transformation in the political landscape of the 2024 election. While some of these changes may be attributed to short-term economic concerns, others could indicate deeper ideological realignments within minority communities. The magnitude of these shifts, particularly in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt, suggests that the Democratic Party no longer can claim an automatic representation of minorities that before supported it. Whether these trends persist in future elections or revert to previous voting patterns remains to be seen, but their impact on the balance of power in the U.S. electoral system has open the door for a Republican primacy led by Donald Trump.