Path to Power: 2024 - Democracy Disrupted?​

           

Parties and Players Internally Disrupt Liberal Democratic Processes

 

Across all kinds of political, economic and social contexts, key parties and players within the election processes challenge liberal democratic institutions within the country. In many of these cases, these parties and players advance right-wing policies, employ populist tactics, and rely on new digital technologies to disseminate their messages and mobilise supporters. In many cases, these parties and players that undermine liberal democratic norms in their respective countries receive strong vote share, often becoming the largest or governing party.

This trend is important not only in the more visible and overt ways in which these parties and players undermine democracy in their respective countries, but also in the ways in which they reconfigure democracy itself. These parties and players seek to change liberal democratic structures, such as the judiciary, election regulation and oversight bodies, in ways that bolster their power and that will have long lasting effects. They also work to change understandings of what democracy is, moving away from established liberal democratic principles to new conceptualisations of how democracies should function.

India

The BJP has overseen a crackdown against the critical, independent media, including the international media, which has seen raids on the
offices of the BBC and other international media groups as well as the denial of travel access to international journalists.

Critics of the BJP accuse them of subverting
India’s state agencies and democratic institutions, including the Election Commission, for electoral advantage. This include claims that the Election Commission has shown bias in its enforcement of electoral norms regarding campaign violations.

Before it was struck down as unconstitutional by the country’s supreme court in early 2024, a significant aspect of this discourse revolved around the introduction and management of the Electoral Bonds scheme. Critics contended that the Electoral Bonds scheme disproportionately boosted the BJP’s electoral funding due to the opacity surrounding donor information and the reported trends in contributions.

It has also been alleged that the BJP has weaponized central investigative agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax department. Opposition leaders claim that these agencies are selectively used to target rivals, particularly during elections, while leaders who join the BJP often receive a reprieve from investigations. This alongside the strategic timing of high-profile raids on opposition leaders around elections have raised questions about the impartiality of these institutions.

Read more in our report on the 2024 Indian election.

The USA

Trump has undermined liberal democratic institutions by repeatedly challenging the legitimacy of elections. This included baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, culminating in Trump’s encouragement of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riots intended to disrupt certification of the results. While in office, he also attempted to erode judicial independence, exemplified by his public attacks on judges who ruled against his administration, such as those blocking his travel ban targeting Muslim-majority countries.

Read more in our report on the 2024 United States Election

Mexico

2024-election winners MORENA, a left-wing, populist party, have consistently criticized aspects of Mexico’s democratic institutions as serving the elite rather than the people. Across his six year tenure López Obrador attempted major constitutional reforms that were seen as undermining Mexico’s liberal democratic institutions to favor MORENA in elections, including attempts to reform the electoral authority and independent governmental oversight institutions. Although unsuccessful on the attempts, López Obrador passed a judicial reform that would make judges elected by popular vote, which was expected to allow parties to build up support within the judiciary and undermine its independence.

Sheinbaum did not make these policies a prominent aspect of her campaign and has been much less critical of Mexico’s democratic structures. However, she has supported the constitutional reforms proposed by AMLO. Within two months of her presidency, Sheinbaum began a process of reforming independent governmental oversight organizations. With MORENA’s higher presence in the legislature, Sheinbaum would be expected to face fewer challenges than López Obrador did in undertaking constitutional reforms.

Read more in our report on the 2024 Mexico Election

Georgia

Despite first sweeping to power in 2012 on the promise of introducing democratic reform and guiding Georgia towards European Union membership, the current illiberal left-wing populist uling party, Georgian Dream, has hollowed out the country’s democratic institutions whilst in power, driving the country towards authoritarianism through oligarchic politics. Through loyalists’ acquisition of key television channels and the use of large-scale online misinformation campaigns, Georgian Dream has been able to dominate societal discourse in Georgia, relying on propaganda to subvert the integrity of the free press. This, in turn, has afforded the party electoral success, with independent and oppositional media unable to sufficiently compete in the information sphere.

The resulting parliamentary majority has been exploited to install loyalists across the branches of government, subverting the separation of powers. Kobakhidze’s constitutional reforms handed expanded competencies to the parliament for the election of the President, as well as the appointment of judges, allowing the party to exploit their parliamentary majority to extend outsized influence in the executive and judicial branches of government.

Gomelauri, Ivanishvili’s former Head of Security, was installed as the Minister of Internal Affairs, with direct oversight over the security services, meaning that the apparatus of state violence has similarly been drawn into the indirect control of Georgia’s richest man. Thus, there remain no formal institutions which can effectively check and balance the power of Georgian Dream. Protest and civil disobedience has, therefore, become the only avenue through which dissatisfaction with power can be expressed.

Read more in our report on the 2024 Georgian Election

Mozambique

The outgoing President Filipe Nyusi undermined liberal democratic norms in Mozambique by influencing the judiciary, as seen in accusations of political interference in the hidden debts scandal, where key legal proceedings were delayed, and judicial actors faced intimidation. Furthermore, his administration’s push for constitutional amendments in 2018 strengthened presidential control over local governance by limiting the autonomy of elected provincial governors, effectively consolidating executive power at the expense of democratic decentralization. The hidden debts scandal further exemplifies how internal actors may erode transparency and accountability, as government officials and elites orchestrated a multi-billion-dollar loan scheme in secret, bypassing parliamentary oversight and deceiving the public.

Read more in our report on the 2024 Mozambique Election

Pakistan

The military has an influential role in Pakistani politics, including direct rule between 1958–1971, 1977–1988, and 1999–2008. The functioning of the country’s democratic processes and transitions from one civil government to another has always remained on a precarious slope, with the military often directing the makeup and conduct of ruling governments and political parties. The military is widely believed to have been involved in ousting the Prime Minister Imran Khan and subsequent ascension of Shahbaz Sharif as the new Prime Minister in a subversion of the democratic political process.

Read more in our report on the 2024 Pakistan Election

United Kingdom

Under Johnson’s premiership, the former Conservative government unlawfully prorogued Parliament in 2019 to prevent MPs from debating their Brexit withdrawal strategy, a move later ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. They also introduced the Internal Market Bill, which explicitly sought to override parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol in breach of international law. These actions, including the dismissal of constitutional checks and the sidelining of parliamentary sovereignty – leaving aside Truss’ brief disastrous s tenure – left Sunak inheriting a party with a shattered reputation.

Read more in our report on the 2024 United Kingdom Election

Indonesia

Outgoing president Joko Widodo enjoys extremely high approval ratings often topping 70%, arguably providing the necessary political capital to engage in a wide range of anti-competitive behavior. Widodo campaigned for his two-time opponent Prabowo Subianto, against his party’s nominee Ganjar Pranowo, seemingly in violation of a 2017 election law requiring sitting presidents to take a leave of absence in order to endorse and campaign for a candidate. Jokowi justified these actions saying that he had not violated election law because he had not used state funds. His eldest son Gibran Rakabuming was allowed to run as Prabowo’s vice presidential nominee, in spite of being below the age cut-off. The age limit was lowered for candidates with experience in elected regional office in a controversial court case, which saw Chief Justice Anwar Usman, Jokowi’s brother-in-law, removed from his position due to a conflict of interests. This decision was vocally criticized by Megawati Sukarnoputri the chairwoman of Jokowi’s party the PDI-P, culminating in a fallout in which the PDI-P expelled Jokowi (and his children) from the party  on the grounds that they had violated the party’s code of ethics.

Read more in our report on the 2024 Indonesia Election

South Africa

The ANC establishment have mellowed since their instantiation as a revolutionary socialist party, and despite allegations of corruption and cadre deployment, broadly uphold the existing institutional structures. However, the EFF and MK Party deploy far-left populist rhetoric – both on- and offline – that directly challenges the constitutional foundations of the nation in seeking to roll back private property rights. Zuma has also criticised the South African courts as colonial inheritances that require reform in direct response to unfavourable rulings regarding his conduct in office.

Read more in our report on the 2024 South Africa Election