Reports of the African National Congress’ death were greatly exaggerated. Despite an unconvincing election campaign – and underwhelming results to match – the historical dominance of the ANC in the post-apartheid era is such that even the unprecedented collapse of their vote share (from 62.1% in 2019 down to 40.1% in 2024) leaves them as the largest national party and leading a coalition government of national unity.  President Cyril Ramaphosa is embattled but remains in post. The story of the campaign, however, was the formidable influence of former president Jacob Zuma.

Zuma left the ANC under a heavy cloud that had been gathering over his head for some time – from the findings of the Zondo Commission and alleged favours for his son in the DRC, to revelations of close ties with the Gupta family, Zuma’s misgivings have kept him in the spotlight and edged away at his credibility as a statesman. His political arch-rival Cyril Ramaphosa ousted him from the party and assumed the role of President, inheriting the ANC’s dwindling reputation and committing to an anti-corruption agenda that would also place his own reputation under scrutiny – see “farmgate”.

Zuma’s enduring popularity may be attributed to a variety of factors: firstly, his reputation as a former member of the anti-apartheid paramilitary movement uMkhonto weSizwe and a defiantly traditionalist Zulu; secondly, his “charismatic buffoonery” has endeared him to many, his willingness to laugh, joke and play the fool to the extent he is admired in some quarters as a populist everyman; and thirdly, Zuma has extensive experience as a political communicator. His party’s social media – despite its problematic excesses – is both dynamic and effective, and belies that at the time of writing, he is 82 years old.

Ironically, as Ramaphosa inherited a broken political brand, losing traction in the polls and securing the lowest percentage of votes that the ANC has recorded in the country’s post-apartheid era, Zuma – a principle cause of the party’s declining popularity – shored up his own supporter base and surprised many with 14.5% (58 seats) of the vote share for the MK Party (MKhonto weSizwe), a micro-party in historical continuity with the paramilitary movement founded by Nelson Mandela. The result was surprising for three reasons – firstly, Zuma was himself banned from standing as a political candidate, meaning that all MK Party candidates were relative unknowns with his backing; secondly, the party massively overperformed its historical vote share, reaffirming the notion that this is a pro-Zuma contingent causing this sharp upturn in fortunes; and thirdly, the existence of a populist left-wing alternative in Julius Malema’s EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) finishing on a lower vote share (9.5% / 39 seats) suggests personal rather than ideological voting patterns, thoroughly undermining Malema’s personal branding as Zuma’s natural successor on the left and denied Malema the role of coalition kingmaker. 

The South African Election Commission partnered with the larger corporate social media giants with the intention to combat disinformation in the 2024 National and Provincial Elections, but peer-to-peer, end-to-end encrypted messages were sent across WhatsApp groups nonetheless and had to be fact-checked during the election. Zuma’s social media strategy was as amoral as it was effective, demonstrating a callous disregard for truth and a willingness to misinform his voter base to secure their support – a 2017 NBC interview with Donald Trump was edited to look as though he was endorsing Zuma in the election; a false claim that Mozambique immigrants were being imported in to vote for the ANC circulated on WhatsApp; and imposters pretending to be the Electoral Commission circulated the false claim that over-60s should vote on different day to everyone else. 

Zuma’s social media supporters shadowboxed the government, fiercely admonishing a version of the ANC that simply did not exist, allegedly with the support of Russian interference. The Democratic Alliance capitalised on the long-term disillusionment with the ANC’s direction, but Zuma’s influence surprised many election observers, underscoring the loyalty of his voter base despite predictions that the electorate were content to move on. 

Zuma’s success ultimately created the parliamentary conditions that forced the ANC into a Government of National Unity with the neoliberal Democratic Alliance, leaving Zuma free to paint Ramaphosa as a technocrat that has long since abandoned his revolutionary zeal. On 18th July, the first sitting of South African parliament took place since the election, in which MK Party representatives were sworn in as the official opposition. It appears that Zuma has had the last laugh: no longer involved in affairs of state, he is free to roam the country and speak directly to crowds of supporters and direct the MK Party in the direction of his choosing. He can squeeze out his younger rival and one-time acolyte Julius Malema and the EFF by embracing socially conservative rhetoric that chimes with older voters whilst heaping pressure on the ANC from the left.  

During an interview with Newzroom Afrika, Zuma insisted that his endorsement of the MK Party was purely a “political something-something”, a strategic plan to shake up the ANC and maintained that he intended to “die in the ANC”. Zuma claimed parallels between the MK established in 1961 as a military wing of the struggling South Africa and the modern micro-party as a means of preserving the revolutionary and emancipatory history of the broader movement. Nevertheless, in the immediate aftermath of the national election, there was an air of desperation around Zuma as he claimed a rigged election, shades of a Trumpian response to a genuinely impressive electoral return, a strange insistence on portraying himself as a true victor in exile. An ANC internal document leaked to the press suggesting that Zuma would be expelled from the party – for all the rallies, the speeches, the sloganeering, the social media blitz, the strategic associations and disassociations, Zuma cuts a tired figure – and whatever he does next, it will be from the outside looking in.