Path to Power: 2024 - Democracy Disrupted?
Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence, widespread public concern, and increasingly severe impacts, climate change continues to be sidelined and downplayed in political agendas. Climate change refers to the long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, primarily caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes, which release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Opponents of climate action have effectively framed the issue as a trade-off with economic development. Addressing climate change is critical because its impacts—including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems—threaten food security, human health, and global stability. Without urgent action, the consequences will become irreversible, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities and future generations.This reflects a focus on short-term gains in domestic policies, prioritizing immediate electoral success over long-term planning in a divisive and polarized global political context.
Indian citizens show high levels of concern regarding environmental issues and the country has already experienced a number of deadly climate events made more likely by climate change, including extreme heat, flash floods and cyclones. However, climate change did not appear as a prominent issue within popular political conversation and election campaigns, with economic development being the most prominent concern.
Climate change was sidelined as an issue, with Trump and many Republican candidates continuing to downplay its significance. Trump has consistently framed climate change as a hoax and has advocated for policies that favour fossil fuel production, such as expanding drilling and reversing environmental regulations. Although, Biden pushed for climate action while in office, most notably through the Inflation Reduction Act that included large investments in renewable energy and electric vehicles, the focus of the Democrat presidential campaigns (both Biden and Harris) was economic recovery, healthcare, and inflation. The Biden administration’s decision to exclude the existing U.S. fleet of natural gas power plants from upcoming carbon emissions regulations while announcing a new US target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035 weeks before Trump’s inauguration could be interpreted as laying a political trap rather than securing durable reform (Civillini, 2024).
Despite the severe effects of climate change suffered in the country such as devastating hurricanes and extreme drought, climate change has been sidelined from political conversation, including electoral campaigns. Even though Claudia Sheinbaum participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the topic was only tangentially addressed by her and the other candidates (El Economista 2024). Although for six years Lopez Obrador ignored the topic and privileged fossil fuels, within the first month in office, Sheinbaum announced an ambitious National Energy Plan that aims at reaching the clean energy goal established in the 2016 Paris Agreement.
Drought and flood effects, caused by a changing climate, are expected to have serious implications for Georgia’s agricultural sector – which is central to the country’s economy. Despite this, the issue was largely absent in the political debate ahead of the election, which focused on the country’s geopolitical direction. With existing climate policy having largely been supported by the EU4Climate Programme, the country’s disengagement with the EU will likely see focus return to short term economic development, as a key hydrocarbon transit country, rather than longterm carbon divestment.
Despite the country being highly vulnerable to natural disasters like cyclones, floods, and droughts, climate change remains a neglected issue. FRELIMO have primarily focused on economic growth, infrastructure development, and securing foreign investment, such as in the natural gas sector, rather than addressing climate adaptation strategies or environmental sustainability. Opposition parties criticize the government for corruption and poor governance but have not made climate action a central part of their platforms.
The impacts of shifting climate patterns are already visible in Pakistan in the form of floods and other extreme weather events. Researchers have connected the country’s floods of 2022, which killed an estimated 1,739 people and left USD 40 billion in damage, to adverse weather effects caused by climate change (Khalid et al. 2024). Projections indicate that Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink by at least 18 to 20 percent by 2050, driven by severe climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution. However, climate change was not a major electoral issue within the country, with economic development being a major focus of all major political parties.
Climate change remains a key concern for voters – especially the younger demographics – who voted disproportionately for the Greens. However, it did not appear as a key issue in the 2024 general election, with the debate primarily focused on cost-of-living concerns, public sector strikes, and economic recovery post-pandemic. In 2019, the UK Parliament declared a climate emergency, committing to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. However, this was followed by a lack of substantial policy initiatives, as government actions like the expansion of airport capacity and the approval of new oil and gas projects contradicted the formal position of addressing an immediate crisis, while police forces escalated their crackdown on climate activists, with groups like Extinction Rebellion facing increased arrests and harsher penalties. By 2024, Sunak’s Tories maintained their commitment to net-zero by 2050 but faced criticism for not implementing more immediate climate policies, instead focusing on energy security and reducing energy bills. Labour promised to accelerate green energy investment (a policy commitment immediately watered down after the election).
The three Presidential candidates largely downplayed climate change as an issue, focusing instead on policies related to foreign investment, infrastructure development, and support for key local industries. This came despite the significant threat to Indonesia’s island people due to climate related effects, with, for instance, ongoing climate litigation on behalf of the people of Pari, whose Island is expected to disappear due to rising sea levels by 2050. Instead, the debate centered on Indonesia’s broader development strategy, with little emphasis on climate-related concerns. Yet many Indonesians, particularly younger voters, express significant concern about climate change. Survey data shows climate change as a consensus issue with broad public support, and respondents place considerable importance on addressing it (Lieserowitz et al, 2023).
Even though the country faces significant challenges like water scarcity, droughts, and the impacts of the energy crisis on sustainable development, climate change was not a dominant issue in the election. The ANC has made some progress in promoting renewable energy and reducing emissions under Ramaphosa, but continues to prioritize economic growth, job creation, and addressing the ongoing energy crisis through Eskom’s coal-fired power stations (even placing the energy ministry under the presidential brief in the post-election coalition). The electorate increasingly prioritizes the immediate end of loadshedding over concerns about the long-term environmental and economic costs of carbon emissions, reflecting a (reluct